Final Partials Show Kabila Clear Victor

My projected vote totals show Kabila is likely to get northwards of nine million votes to Tshisekedi's 6.6 million. These numbers represent reported votes received in each province weighted by the percent of voting districts included in the tally.

	Kabila	Tshisekedi	Kamerhe	Kengo	Mobutu	Mbusa
Bandundu	1,504,598	400,000	33,333	27,586	12,644	6,897
Bas Congo	168,000	626,000	13,000	4,400	2,400	2,600
Equateur	251,220	726,829	76,829	757,317	125,610	14,634
Kasai Occidental	311,579	1,326,316	4,211	3,158	3,158	3,158
Kasai Orientale	370,652	1,039,130	5,435	3,261	4,348	3,261
Katanga	2,828,866	228,866	35,052	4,639	6,804	5,155
Kinshasa	673,292	1,438,509	83,230	16,149	6,708	1,863
Maniema	438,384	14,646	36,364	1,010	1,818	1,212
North Kivu	690,110	410,989	423,077	8,901	23,077	252,747
Province Orientale	1,262,222	283,333	156,667	55,556	94,444	37,778
South Kivu	617,978	130,337	577,528	3,596	15,730	3,146
TOTALS (PROJECTED)	9,116,900	6,624,957	1,444,725	885,573	296,741	332,451

So, for example, if Kabila received 1,137 votes (in thousands, rounded off) in Province Orientale, and 90 percent of the districts have reported in, I estimate he'll eventually receive 1,263 votes.

Here is what that table looks like in graphical form:

I project overall turnout to be at about 60.5 percent, about what I predicted on Sunday. (I added all candidates' votes, divided by percent of districts reporting in, and got a projected total number of votes for each province. I then divided that number by the number of registered voters per province.) Here is the breakdown:

Province	Turnout
Bandundu	58
Bas Congo	57
Equateur	52
Kasai Occidental	63
Kasai Orientale	55
Katanga	68
Kinshasa	69
Maniema	58
North Kivu	62
Province Orientale	52
South Kivu	68
TOTALS (PROJECTED)	60.5

I'll have more to say in a bit. But the turnout doesn't seem to have greatly favored Kabila. Yes, the turnout in Katanga is high, but it's equally high in Kinshasa and just somewhat lower in the Kasais. Lowest turnout is in Equateur, perhaps because favorite son Jean Pierre Bemba is locked up in the Hague, and in Orientale, a province with proportionally fewer urban areas. 

Again, there's nothing in the numbers we've been given that would indicate any systemic fraud. No cache of votes that suddenly inflate Kabila's numbers in one round versus another, no opposition strongholds where turnout is suspiciously low. Obviously the right thing to do now is to try to compare the final tallies to the numbers that the voting stations themselves independently report. Still, I'd be surprised to discover anything significant.

On a side note, shouldn't Robin Wright be weighing in with her analysis about now? No doubt hers will be the final word.