No Trend Changes in Third Release

The third release of CENI data revealed no major momentum changes in the presidential race, with Kabila still leading by a comfortable margin. Nor do there appear to be any significant changes in how any of the provinces are voting.

The first release included data on 15.6 percent of the districts, the second on 33.3 percent, and the third on 52.9 percent.

Here are my projected vote totals after each release. The numbers differ modestly, but the ratio of Kabila's number of votes to Tshisekedi's varies only slightly, from 1.22 after the first release; to 1.33 after the second; to 1.28 after the third. (I'm using ratios rather than percentages here because we don't yet know the total number of people who will vote.)
 
                            Projected Vote Totals

	After Release 1	After Release 2	After Release 3
Kabila	7,483	8,545	8,297
Tshisekedi	6,158	6,389	6,444
Kamerhe	1,366	1,805	1,610

If Kabila is stealing this election, he's doing it very cleverly, never inserting too many fake votes into the mix with each release.

These numbers do indicate, as I suggested earlier, that turnout was below the estimated 70 percent, falling somewhere between 55 and 60 percent for the nation as a whole.