Much to write about the two events held at the Wilson Center yesterday. But for me one of the most interesting observations came from Marijan Zumbulev, UN Advocacy Director at the International Crisis Group, who said that General Bosco Ntaganda, aka the Terminator, initiated his attempted coup against Laurent Nkunda, the leader of the Tutsi-dominated rebel movement CNDP, at the instigation of the Rwandan and Congolese governments. Ntaganda has a warrant out for his arrest by the ICC for war crimes, and may have played a major role in November's massacre of 150 people in the Congolese village of Kiwanja.
I had speculated that Ntaganda launched his attempted takeover of the CNDP after learning that Nkunda was about to offer him up as the fall guy for the CNDP's sins. But Zumbulev says that Ntaganda has worked out an alliance with the Congolese and Rwandan armies to go after the FDLR, the remnant genocidaires forces operating in eastern DRC.
Ntaganda has been making noises about going after the FDLR. I had taken them as little more than a cover story for his real aim of taking over the CNDP and securing for himself some sort of immunity from the ICC. But if Ntaganda really does have Rwandan and Congolese backing, then Nkunda is the one in trouble. Time will tell.
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