Who Wants What?

Because so many of the actors in the DRC's conflicts are themselves obscure and evanescent, or proxies operating on behalf of veiled interests, or simply incompetent, it can be difficult to disentangle who wants what in the Congo and who might be capable of delivering it. Is Rwanda in Congo to hunt down the ex-genocidaires, or is it there to exploit the Congo's resources? Is Nkunda a legitimate defender of the Rwandan immigrant communities in eastern Congo, or an opportunistic politician seeking a platform for his own grandiose ambitions? Are the Mai Mai loyal nationalists fighting off foreign invaders, or deluded thugs looking to make a quick buck? Why has the DRC's army proven not merely incompetent, but one of the major abusers of its own citizens' human rights--even in areas where they might be welcomed as liberators?

Marijan Zumbulev of the International Crisis Group attempted to shed some light on these questions in a review of recent developments in the DRC, where he shared a panel with Autesserre at the Wilson Center. I've written earlier that he believes that Bosco Ntaganda has formed an alliance with both Rwanda and DRC governments to topple Nkunda's CNDP and help round up the FDLR. One potentially serious consequence of that is that Nkunda may have no option but to move his remaining forces southward, toward Goma. Zumbulev also indicated that the Rwandan government will say, off the record, that all they really want in the Congo are about a dozen or so of the ex-genocidaires who took refuge there after 1994. (In other words, that they don't really feel the need to hunt down the entire FDLR militia, most of whom had little to do with the 94 genocide.) He was hopeful--more hopeful than I am--that Mkapa and Obasanjo can make significant progress in the region, but he cautioned that there was no military solution to the violence and that peace wouldn't come without persistent cajoling from the international community.

I remain less convinced than many observers of the benefits of ongoing diplomacy. As I've often said in the past, it seems to me that most of the fighting in the region is the result of opportunistic resource grabs. And what we need, in this chaotic environment, where life is indeed nasty, brutish, and short, is a State, properly constituted--and in its absence, a MONUC force capable of acting in loco status until an adequate state and military can be nurtured into existence.

Is the Terminator on the Side of the Angels?

Much to write about the two events held at the Wilson Center yesterday. But for me one of the most interesting observations came from Marijan Zumbulev, UN Advocacy Director at the International Crisis Group, who said that General Bosco Ntaganda, aka the Terminator, initiated his attempted coup against Laurent Nkunda, the leader of the Tutsi-dominated rebel movement CNDP, at the instigation of the Rwandan and Congolese governments. Ntaganda has a warrant out for his arrest by the ICC for war crimes, and may have played a major role in November's massacre of 150 people in the Congolese village of Kiwanja.

I had speculated that Ntaganda launched his attempted takeover of the CNDP after learning that Nkunda was about to offer him up as the fall guy for the CNDP's sins. But Zumbulev says that Ntaganda has worked out an alliance with the Congolese and Rwandan armies to go after the FDLR, the remnant genocidaires forces operating in eastern DRC.

Ntaganda has been making noises about going after the FDLR. I had taken them as little more than a cover story for his real aim of taking over the CNDP and securing for himself some sort of immunity from the ICC. But if Ntaganda really does have Rwandan and Congolese backing, then Nkunda is the one in trouble. Time will tell.

Kivu's Four-Ring Circus Continues [Updated]

In Ring One:
Negotiations are said to be "continuing" in Nairobi between the Kabila government and the CNDP rebels, and to be focused on securing a possible cease fire.

Ring Two:
The LRA, in flight since a Uganda-led assault on their encampments in northeastern Congo on December 14, have attacked the gold-mining village of Sambia, 130km east of Dungu, in Orientale province, says IRIN, the UN OCHA news agency. The attack led to several deaths and caused almost 10,000 people to flee their homes. An OCHA briefing on the humanitarian crisis in Ituri is available here.

Ring Three:
More details are emerging from the interview Bosco Ntaganda gave to journalists last week from his home farm in Kabati, which Reuters first reported on last week. Ntaganda led an apparently unsuccessful attempt to overthrow Laurent Nkunda as leader of the CNDP, perhaps, it is thought, because Nkunda was preparing to turn him over to international authorities. Ntaganda is wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes he committed in Ituri province in 2005.

Today, the Institute for War and Peace Reporting says that Ntaganda is ready to face Hague prosecutors – but not just yet. "I will go to The Hague when it is the right time," Ntaganda told IWPR during a January 8 meeting with journalists.

But first, Ntaganda said, he has to help bring peace to the Kivus. Accusing Nkunda of blocking the peace process, he offered his CNDP troops to fight alongside the Congolese army to disarm the Rwandan Hutu Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, FDLR, which he says are at the root of the problem.

It is not clear, however, how many CNDP troops Ntaganda controls. The CNDP's spokesman, who remains loyal to Nkunda, has said that Ntaganda brought no troops and no weapons with him when he arrived from Ituri.

As for the indictment against him, Ntaganda sounds fairly sanguine: "There are positive things I did in Ituri. If you ask people, they will tell you that I am the one who ended war and nobody else," he said.

It is worth remembering that Ntaganda's nickname is "The Terminator" and that there are compelling and credible accounts of him committing serious war crimes, both in Ituri and more recently in North Kivu.

Ring Four:
Rwanda's New Times provides more detail on the meeting in Kinshasa last week between Rwanda's Chief of Defence Staff General James Kabarebe and his Congolese counterpart, Gen. Didier Etumba.

The meeting is a follow-up to earlier meetings between the foreign secretaries and army chiefs of the two countries to discuss how they can operationalize their joint military plan to uproot negative forces in the volatile eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

UPDATE, 1/13: Digital Congo reports that Kabila's Cabinet met on Monday and agreed to disarm by force the FDLR and other militia groups operating in eastern Congo. Although the Congolese army lacks the capacity to disarm the FDLR on its own, a fact the Cabinet is surely aware of, this public commitment gives the government the cover to cooperate with the Rwandan army.

In general, the willingness of the region's governments to cooperate across borders in hunting down rebel movements that take refuge in each others' countries is a positive development. We saw an example of this last month with South Sudan, Congolese, and Ugandan troops tracking down the LRA, with assistance from MONUC. For the Congolese FARDC to ally with the Rwandan army in pursuit of the FLDR would be major development. Removing the FDLR from eastern Congo would eliminate one of the primary sources of instability in the region, help normalize relations between Congo and Rwanda, and constitute a major step toward peace.

What's Going on in the East?

Laurent Nkunda, the leader of the Tutsi-dominated rebel movement CNDP, appears to have put down a coup attempt by his chief of staff, General Bosco Ntaganda.

Ntaganda reportedly sent a statement to the media on Monday (1/5) claiming that he had ousted Nkunda, a statement that was immediately denied by Nkunda's spokesman. Nkunda insists he remains in control of the rebel movement and says his military chief will be disciplined for insubordination, which he called an "act of madness."

Rwanda's New Times reports that the CNDP's military high command was to have met yesterday to discuss Ntaganda's fate. Nkunda himself was expected to chair that meeting, in the Rutshuru area of Nord-Kivu.

Meanwhile, Ntaganda spoke to journalists yesterday at a hillside farm at Kabati, a village located about thirty miles northwest of Rutshuru. Reuters says that Ntaganda accused Nkunda of being an obstacle to peace: "The head of the CNDP has been removed, but the CNDP remains." Ntaganda, said the Reuters report, was flanked by "dozens of fighters" and other CNDP leaders.

However, Jason Stearns, the head of the recent UN expert group report, said that he doubted Ntaganda would be able to peel off much support from Nkunda. While Ntaganda is popular with rank-and-file soldiers, most of whom are from the same Gogwe clan, most of the CNDP commanders have rallied behind Nkunda.

Reuters says that U.N. officials and human rights campaigners believe that Ntaganda acted after learning that Nkunda planned to discipline him for the massacre in Kiwanja in November, in which as many as 150 civilians were killed.

News of the Kiwanja massacre made the front page of the New York Times, and the recent UN expert report documented close ties between the CNDP and the Rwandan government, prompting various Scandinavian governments to pull their financial support to Rwanda.

Kagame could be worried that supporting Nkunda is beginning to cost him too much international support. And he may feel less of a need to support the CNDP now that the Congolese government has agreed to allow joint military operations within its territory against the FDLR. So Nkunda probably offered up Ntaganda as a sacrifice, to give Kagame some wiggle room with the international donor community. Only Ntaganda wasn't willing to be the fall guy, especially since the ICC has a warrant out for his arrest. He doesn't want to spend the next 20 years in some cell in The Hague.

Now the question is how long Ntaganda will be able to operate on his own, cut off from the CNDP and Rwanda. Reuters' report that he was surrounded by "dozens" of soldiers suggests that he doesn't have a lot support for the long haul.

For his part, Nkunda has to be worried about the viability of his movement, given the increasing pressure from above and the defections and threats from below. And if MONUC ever gets those extra 3,000 troops, he'll be facing a third threat, head-on: an international force with a mandate to put him out of business. These are desperate times for Nkunda.