Sunday, December 4, 2011

Katanga Looks to Push Kabila Over the Top

This chart provides a visual sense of who's winning in each province. Obviously, the story that really leaps out here is the extraordinary number of votes Kabila received in Katanga.

I guess I'm not particularly surprised by Kabila's sweep of Katanga or by his strength in Bandundu. Those were pretty much of a given. Congolese tend to vote in ethno-linguistic blocs; Kabila's right hand man, Antoine Gizenga, delivered Bandundu, and it looks as if Moise Katumbi's endorsement helped him dominate Katanga. I am surprised at how well Kabila did in the Kivus, particularly South Kivu, where Kamerhe was running as a favorite son. And I have no idea why he did so well in Province Orientale. 

Otherwise, the only outstanding question is how well Tshisekedi ran in Kinshasa. The early returns CENI put out have him winning the city by a 5 to 3 margin, but this was based on only 3.3 percent of the districts reporting. UDPS supporters believe Tshisekedi will do much better as more returns roll in. However, as I've said earlier, based on these numbers there's no way he can make up for his poor showing elsewhere, no matter how well he does in Kinshasa.

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