Saturday, July 11, 2009

Memo to Congolese: Expect the Rwandans

Wolpe, who is all-but blind to Rwanda's ambiguities, will almost certainly press Kabila to allow the Rwandans in to "finish the job" of rounding up ex-genocidaires in eastern Congo. That will put Kabila between a rock and a hard place: Allow the Rwandans in, and he will almost certainly lose the 2011 elections. Don't allow them in, and he will be cast as the impediment to peace.

I would not put it past Wolpe, however, to make a deal with Kabila: we'll wink at your electoral shenanigans if you let the Rwandans in to the east.

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