Friday, January 23, 2009

Will Rwanda Annex Part of Congo?

From Reuters:
A United Nations source said Kabila's main objective was "the removal of Nkunda and re-taking his headquarters" near Rutshuru.

The source said that once the military operation is terminated, the government could create a new administrative entity for ethnic Rwandans, both Hutu and Tutsi, living in Congo.

The resulting buffer zone would give Kigali an unprecedented degree of security on its western border, as well as boost the mineral and crop-rich province.
If Kabila allows Rwanda to carve out a piece of the Congo for itself, either de facto or de jure, it is hard to imagine how he will retain any political legitimacy. Remember that virtually all his support in the 2006 election came from the east. The western half of the country already distrusts him. But the Congolese have not proven terribly effective at organizing opposition, no matter how unpopular the government. Kabila may have figured that Nkunda represented a bigger threat to his power than a disenchanted Congolese electorate would ever pose. Elections aren't until 2011--and that's en principe. He may have decided that giving away a piece of the Congo is a small price to pay to secure his presidency.

On the other hand, Kabila may not have thought through this whole thing at all. As we've learned, he didn't even bother mentioning this little arrangement with Rwanda to his own army chief or speaker of the parliament.

No comments:

Post a Comment