It's Pleasanter Inside

Here are two photos that have been taken in the past week. The first is from the Huffington Post:

Internally displaced Congolese children shelter from the rain under plastic sheets as they wait for aid to be distributed in Kibati, north of Goma, eastern Congo, Wednesday Aug. 8, 2012. Drenching rain punctuated by frightening bursts of thunder and forked lightning add to the misery of some of the 280,000 refugees from Congo's eastern rebellion, whose plight is highlighted by a visit from the U.N. humanitarian chief Baroness Valerie Amos. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay)  

The second is a Twitter Pic of the ICGLR meeting on the fighting in the Kivus published by Inzo Congo. 

From Inzo Congo

Warring Take-Aways from the ICGLR

(Wall Street Journal) - East and central African states agreed Tuesday to deploy a joint force to tackle armed rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a restive and mineral-rich nation, officials said.

(Reuters) - African leaders failed on Wednesday to agree on the make-up of a proposed neutral force to tackle the insurgency in eastern Democratic of Congo, diplomats at a regional meeting said.

Quote of the Day

Andy, as you mentioned, obviously as we've noted previously, the U.S. Government supports the efforts of the DRC to end the mutiny from its army of a group calling themselves the M23, and to bring justice, the ICC indictee Bosco Ntganda and other alleged human rights abusers among mutineers who were reported to have forcibly recruited child soldiers. The U.S. is deeply concerned about the findings of the UN report that Rwanda is implicated in the provision of support to M23. We have asked Rwanda to halt and prevent the provision of such support from its territory which threatens to undermine stability in the region. Restraint, dialogue, and respect for each other's sovereignty offer the best opportunity for Rwanda and the DRC, with the support of their partners, to resume the difficult work of bringing peace and stability to the broader region.
And in terms of our contacts, obviously we have been in touch with the Rwandans. I don't have any particular contact to read out for you at this time, but we're clearly engaged with the Rwandan Government.

             --Patrick Ventrell, Excerpts from State Department Briefing

The Problem Lies not with Rwanda, but with the Congolese State

Here's a powerful quote from La Voix des Sans Voix: 

"La VSV ne s’explique pas que ce soit la Monusco et Human Rights Watch qui soient les premières à dénoncer l’appui du Rwanda aux mutins alors que notre pays, la RDC, dispose de nombreux services de sécurité civils et militaires auxquels un budget conséquent est toujours alloué chaque année. Elle pense que le manque, par la RDC, de maîtrise du contrôle des questions de sécurité à ses frontière repose avec acuité la problématique de l’échec depuis plusieurs années de la restauration de l’autorité de l’Etat sur l’ensemble du territoire congolais en général et à l’Est de la RDC en particulier."

My translation:

 The VSV doesn't understand how it is that Monusco and Human Rights Watch were the first to denounce Rwanda's support for the mutiny, given that our country, the DRC, has at its disposal numerous security services, both military and civil, upon which considerable sums are budgeted allocated each year. It thinks that the DRC's inability to control its borders is symptomatic of the government's failure over the past several years to restore the authority of the state over the entirety of the Congolese territory and of the east in particular.

Quote of the Day

Don't forget what you're celebrating today. It's that a bunch of slave-owning, aristocratic, white males didn't want to pay their taxes!
                --Michael Cohen ‏@speechboy71

Quotes of the Day

--Declassified cable from US Ambassador Robert Gribben to the State Department, dated 9/20/2003.

This paper will briefly describe (i) the human cost of the war in the DRC, (ii) the relation of foreign aid to Ugandan and Rwandan defense budgets, and (iii) the economic gains accrued to both countries. It will show that there has been ample documented evidence from 1997 onwards of Rwandan and Ugandan responsibility for gross human rights violations, and that major donors should have been aware of these crimes. This paper will demonstrate that the occupation of the DRC can not only be considered partly as an investment that provided high returns for both countries, but also that the continuation of Western aid implicitly condoned both their occupation of the DRC and the associated human rights violations. Arguments by the donor community about the futility of suspending aid to both countries were disproved when temporary aid suspensions were either threatened or implemented. Even if suspending aid had been ineffective, it seems hard to understand why countries that have the resources to invade their neighbors would need donor support.

--Timothy Reid, "Killing them Softly: Has Foreign Aid to Rwanda and Uganda Contributed to the Humanitarian Tragedy in the DRC?" Africa Policy Journal, Spring 2006


Amount the US is providing Rwanda this year in direct bilateral aid, not including military programs: $240 million.

Good News, Bad News

So in the good news department, Congo's economy may grow at 7 percent this year, a point higher than earlier IMF predictions.

The SEC will finally issue regulations on Dodd-Frank 1502 on August 22. The wording of the SEC's notice is a little odd: It says the SEC will vote on "whether to adopt rules regarding disclosure and reporting obligations with respect to the use of conflict minerals." I don't think the SEC actually has the latitude to decide whether to adopt rules or not. This is presumably just some archaic way of announcing that the SEC's rules will be issued and voted on at a public meeting on the 22nd.

Francois Hollande's announced his intention of moving France away from some of its bad habits and toward regaining influence in Africa, according to Le Congolais. He's appointed diplomat Paul Jean-Ortiz and two Africa experts, Hélène Le Gal et Thomas Mélonio, to run his Africa policy. The best thing Hollande has going for him, say some Africans, is that he never participated in the Paris-Africa mafia that for decades dominated France's relationship with its post-colonial states.

That's it for the good news. The bad news:

The ICRC is reporting ongoing violence in remote hillside regions of North Kivu, which is forcing many people to flee. "The trauma connected with a hasty departure – over and above the lack of food and other essentials – should not be underestimated," said Mr Rauchenstein. "The fear of falling victim to violence or, for those who survive, of being attacked again, is very stressful."

Radio Okapi is reporting that North Kivu civil society is concerned about the presence of numerous armed groups of unknown origin in Rutshuru and Lubero.

The Inter Press service reports that some 200 Rwandaphone children may have joined the M23.

Donors upped Rwanda's aid budget by 7 percent this year, to some 300 billion Rwandan francs ($500 million). Rwanda's invasion of its neighbor seems not to have provoked any discussion among the donors about the wisdom of increasing aid.

Belgian Foreign Minister Suggests Joint Rwanda-Congo-Monusco Border Patrols

So what's happening in North Kivu? There have been various, isolated reports of military maneuvers on the ground, whose significance is difficult to perceive--at least from where I'm sitting, 7,500 miles away. But there have been few reports of outright clashes between FARDC and the mutineers. This suggests one of two possibilities: The first is that Kabila is going about things in a deliberate way, seeking some mutually satisfactory political accommodation with Rwanda while building up a preponderance of force in the region should he need to call on the military. If that's what he's doing, it's an impressive strategy: in the face of a provocation that would prompt almost any nation to issue an immediate declaration of war, Kabila instead chose the diplomatic route while carefully husbanding his resources in the eventuality of conflict.

The alternative is that not much appears to be happening because not much is happening. It may be that Kabila's government is simply too lethargic to meet the mutineers' threat, that the government and opposition are so preoccupied with their real job--the acquisition and disposition of the state's resources to their clientele--that they can't muster up much of a reaction to the latest incursion.

At the moment, the second possibility seems the more likely, unfortunately. The government's general indolence, coupled with the very modest attention this part of the world receives, means that the conflict is likely to go on going on, inconclusively, for months if not years ahead. That's disappointing.


I had hoped things were otherwise. I was impressed a few weeks ago by the Congo's initial reaction to the mutiny. They dispatched senior officials to North Kivu, who gave forceful speeches at towns on or near the frontline. And there were early indications were that the forces FARDC had summoned to deal with the situation were qualitatively superior to the normal run: journalists quoted locals impressed that the new troops weren't hitting them up for cash. It seemed for a while that Congo was actually behaving like a state. 


The Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders, in Bujumbura to attend Burundi's 50th anniversary celebration, floated the idea of establishing some sort of joint Rwandan-Congolese-Monusco force patrolling the border. "According the the UN and other sources, Rwanda is part of the problem, which it denies. So now it's up to them to be part of the solution!" He promised to try to keep the problems of eastern Congo on the European agenda.  


Well, it's something anyway.

Congolese Migrants Head to Russia, Morocco, and Mexico

Two remarkable charts graphs illustrations, courtesy of Hans Rosling and the folks at MigrationsMap.net

Where do Congolese go?

Out-Migration from the DRC: Remarkably, the Russian Federation is the leading destination, 

followed by Morocco  and Mexico

Where do people who immigrate to Congo come from?

Migration into DRC: Fewer surprises here, with South Africa R of Congo, and Zambia in the lead

Lambert Mende: No anti-Tutsi Sentiment Allowed

Interesting to come upon this in today's press review: The normally outspoken Press Minister Lambert Mende has banned until further notice the publication of Le Journal on grounds of inciting ethnic hatred. He said an article on page two of the paper "stigmatizes an entire community for the faults of certain of its members." He added that the government understands that no ethnic group is responsible for criminal acts, which are instead committed by individuals within the country. "We are acting to protect public order and the rights of all ethnic groups because that is our responsibility. We are, as the government, responsible for the safety and well being of all 404 ethnic groups in this country."

Now if I could only find the story that so provoked the minister.

The original Radio Okapi story about the ban continues below the fold (in French):