Quote of the Day III

Rather than being a cause for celebration, the election was a shemozzle marred by frequent irregularities and deadly violence.

          --Emily Paddon, "Beyond Elections in the Congo"

The Concise Oxford English Dictionary defines a shemozzle as a muddle, quarrel, mêlée.

The expression derives from the Yiddish word shlimazl, for an unlucky fellow. The online etymological dictionary provides a useful clarification: "A shlemiel is the fellow who climbs to the top of a ladder with a bucket of paint and then drops it. A shimazl is the fellow on whose head the bucket falls."

So if the Congo is the one on whom the bucket fell, who is the one who dropped it?

CORRECTED--How Bill Richardson Can Help--CORRECTED

RICHARDSON IS NOT IN THE CONGO. CONGOLESE NEWS ACCOUNTS TO THAT EFFECT WERE INCORRECT.

Bill Richardson is reportedly in Kinshasa on behalf of the National Democratic Institute to help negotiate a peaceful resolution to the disputed election.

Photo of Richardson at Ceni HQ in
October, from Alex Engwete

Richardson is known in Congo as the guy who tried to persuade Mobutu to step down in 1997, as Kabila's Rwandan forces bore down on him from the east.

It's not clear why Richardson isn't working under the auspices of the State Department instead of NDI. I had heard rumors that he would be named special envoy, but that seems not to have come through. Richardson, who had to withdraw his 2009 nomination as Obama's choice for secretary of commerce when it came out that he was under investigation for pay-to-play dealings, has recently conducted parallel track diplomatic efforts in several global hot-spots, including Cuba, Sudan, and North Korea.

 A former congressman, governor, and cabinet officer, Richardson brings considerable political heft to his assignments, regardless of who his official sponsor is.

The task confronting Richardson now is to prevent post-electoral violence in Congo from becoming a run-away chain reaction.

Tensions are high, especially in the capital Kinshasa, where incumbent president Joseph Kabila looks likely to be re-elected under a cloud of suspicion and resentment. The main opposition figure, Etienne Tshisekedi, says that the election was rigged. He is extremely popular in Kinshasa and has intimated he might encourage his supporters to riot in the streets.

But he has also said he would accept the election results if they were properly tallied. This should provide the opening Richardson needs. He should encourage Tshisekedi to hold off doing anything rash by promising to conduct an audit under international certification. This will be difficult, given the chaos of election day, but it should be possible to compare the district-by-district totals to the final tally counted by CENI. Richardson should work with Tshisekedi to find someone, preferably a retired African leader, who's capable of credibly heading this job, given proper technical support.

Of course, Richardson would also have to persuade Kabila to allow such an audit to proceed. That should not be particularly difficult. After all, it's in his best interest to dispel doubts about the legitimacy of his victory. And it's not as if the West is entirely without leverage here.

It should also be possible to re-do the vote in those (several dozen) districts where logistics or political chaos prevented it.

Finally, Richardson needs to persuade the international community to gin up the money necessary to conduct this audit. The amount it would take is reasonably small, and easily justified on preventive grounds. Dispatching a few dozen expert vote-counters for a couple of weeks is a cheap price to pay to prevent the sort of cataclysm many now fear for the Congo.

The Congo won't turn into Cote d'Ivoire, where two armies clashed following a disputed election. For one thing, Tshisekedi doesn't have an army, unless you count the legion of young men who see him as their spokesman. But Congo could see days or weeks of violence ahead, along the lines of what happened in Kenya in 2007.

Quote of the Day II

From Alex Engwete:

"The image we're evincing is that of a bullet train headed straight against a wall!"

          --Mgr Nicolas Djombo, National Conference of Catholic Bishops (CENCO)

Quote of the Day

From the New York Times:

“We’re in the presence of a large-scale manipulation of numbers. In 2006 they published by centers of vote, so you could verify. Now, no one can verify. So, we’re confronting a fraudulent manipulation.”

--Attributed to "Pascale Kambale" of the "Open Society Initiative for West Africa"

I think the gray lady means Pascal Kambale of the Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa

No Trend Changes in Third Release

The third release of CENI data revealed no major momentum changes in the presidential race, with Kabila still leading by a comfortable margin. Nor do there appear to be any significant changes in how any of the provinces are voting.

The first release included data on 15.6 percent of the districts, the second on 33.3 percent, and the third on 52.9 percent.

Here are my projected vote totals after each release. The numbers differ modestly, but the ratio of Kabila's number of votes to Tshisekedi's varies only slightly, from 1.22 after the first release; to 1.33 after the second; to 1.28 after the third. (I'm using ratios rather than percentages here because we don't yet know the total number of people who will vote.)
 
                            Projected Vote Totals

	After Release 1	After Release 2	After Release 3
Kabila	7,483	8,545	8,297
Tshisekedi	6,158	6,389	6,444
Kamerhe	1,366	1,805	1,610

If Kabila is stealing this election, he's doing it very cleverly, never inserting too many fake votes into the mix with each release.

These numbers do indicate, as I suggested earlier, that turnout was below the estimated 70 percent, falling somewhere between 55 and 60 percent for the nation as a whole.

Quote of the Day

Right now, this election—as chaotic, unfair, and episodically violent as it has been—does not look to have been stolen. Whether that will matter in the days and weeks ahead is anyone's guess.

                                                          —Me, just now, and you can quote me on that 

Fraud Not Evident in Numbers

The disorganization and sheer chaos that reign at the counting stations are fueling suspicions of fraud, but ought to be dispelling them: How do you steal an election when you're this disorganized?

Aside from Kabila' strength in South Kivu and Orientale, there's nothing that really leaps out as suspicious in the results. Yes, Kabila swept voter-rich Katanga, but Tshisekedi nearly matched him vote-for-vote in the two Kasais.  In fact, Tshisekedi would beat Kabila if you don't count the four eastern provinces (the Kivus, Orientale, and Maniema). This leads, inevitably, to the what-if thought: Had Tshisekedi agreed to partner with Kamerhe, he might be selecting his cabinet members now.

Nor is there any compelling evidence of systemic vote suppression. Rates of turnout by province do not reflect any striking anomalies. (NB: My methodology is very rough; see footnote here for why this judgment is highly provisional.)

Province	Percent of registered who voted
Bandundu	63
Bas Congo	54
Equateur	49
Kasai Occidental	49
Kasai Orientale	54
Katanga	62
Kinshasa	63
Maniema	57
North Kivu	57
Province Orientale	50
South Kivu	64

Kabila may yet try to pull some shenanigans in Kinshasa that will give Tshisekedi cause for complaint. But right now, this election--as chaotic, unfair, and episodically violent as it has been--does not look to have been stolen. Whether that will matter in the days and weeks ahead is anyone's guess.

Quote of the Day

Tshisekedi's none too happy:

Selon Etienne Tshisekedi, ces résultats donnés par la CENI sont fantaisistes et ne reflètent pas la réalité des résultats sur terrain. "Nous demandons au président de la CENI d'arrêter cette mascarade, car le peuple congolais reste vigilant" a-t-il déclaré.
Si la CENI et Joseph Kabila continuent à naviguer sur le contre courant de l'histoire et à résister à la volonté du peuple, le peuple congolais prendra bien ses responsabilités", a martelé le président de l'UDPS, Etienne Tshisekedi. Le président de l'UDPS a également “mis en garde" le président sortant Joseph Kabila contre toute tentative de tricherie et sa volonté visant à se maintenir au pouvoir."

My  translation:

According to Etienne Tshisekedi, the results given by the CENI are fantastic and do not reflect the reality of the results on the ground. "We ask the chairman of the CENI to stop this charade, because the Congolese people remain vigilant," he said.
"If the CENI and Joseph Kabila continue to sail against the tide of history and to resist the will of the people, the Congolese people will do what they believe is necessary," insisted the UDPS leader.
Tshisekedi also warned the President Kabila against "any attempt at cheating and willingness to stay in power."

Katanga Looks to Push Kabila Over the Top

This chart provides a visual sense of who's winning in each province. Obviously, the story that really leaps out here is the extraordinary number of votes Kabila received in Katanga.

I guess I'm not particularly surprised by Kabila's sweep of Katanga or by his strength in Bandundu. Those were pretty much of a given. Congolese tend to vote in ethno-linguistic blocs; Kabila's right hand man, Antoine Gizenga, delivered Bandundu, and it looks as if Moise Katumbi's endorsement helped him dominate Katanga. I am surprised at how well Kabila did in the Kivus, particularly South Kivu, where Kamerhe was running as a favorite son. And I have no idea why he did so well in Province Orientale. 

Otherwise, the only outstanding question is how well Tshisekedi ran in Kinshasa. The early returns CENI put out have him winning the city by a 5 to 3 margin, but this was based on only 3.3 percent of the districts reporting. UDPS supporters believe Tshisekedi will do much better as more returns roll in. However, as I've said earlier, based on these numbers there's no way he can make up for his poor showing elsewhere, no matter how well he does in Kinshasa.

Pretty Women

Because we need a mental break from the election.

Due to the student uprisings, the 1968 Miss Europe contest was moved from Nice, France, to Kinshasa. Congo. There's an informative write-up here, and some silent video here. Interestingly, whoever wrote up the archival material for the video assumed the contest had to have been held in Belgium, in spite of all the African faces in the crowds!

Not that Congolese ever lacked for beautiful women among their own. Jean Depara (1928-1997) was an Angolan immigré to Congo who became a photographer after buying a small Adox camera to record his own wedding. His collection of photos of Kinshasa, particularly its night life, are a striking memorialization of Kinshasa, la Belle. Maison Revue Noire in Paris is hosting a retrospective of his work until December 17.